Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1643 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–46%.

Safest bet that day AA 1643 DFW 07:29 → AUS 08:39 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 972 DFW 21:35 → AUS 22:39 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1643 American Flight history →	DFW 07:29	AUS 08:39	17%	4%	1.2%	87%
AA 794 American Flight history →	DFW 08:46	AUS 09:54	19%	4%	1.1%	80%
AA 1070 American	DFW 10:51	AUS 12:02	23%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 3722 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:21	AUS 18:22	26%	7%	3.9%	61%
AA 3054 American Flight history →	DFW 12:03	AUS 13:22	27%	8%	1.0%	74%
AA 1852 American	DFW 12:28	AUS 13:36	28%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 2103 American	DFW 14:38	AUS 15:50	32%	11%	1.3%	no record
AA 1073 American	DFW 13:22	AUS 14:32	33%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 1146 American	DFW 15:55	AUS 17:03	35%	11%	1.2%	no record
AA 576 American Flight history →	DFW 20:51	AUS 22:04	40%	15%	4.3%	65%
AA 2707 American Flight history →	DFW 20:33	AUS 21:37	41%	15%	3.8%	55%
AA 1588 American Flight history →	DFW 18:11	AUS 19:18	43%	15%	2.6%	57%
AA 972 American Flight history →	DFW 21:35	AUS 22:39	46%	22%	15.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON