Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 37–46% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 569 American Flight history →	DFW 12:41	AVL 16:07	37%	10%	1.9%	74%worse than usual
AA 3267 American	DFW 20:19	AVL 23:28	46%	13%	4.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	2h 47m Denver	DEN 09:40 → AVL 14:39UA 1992	7h 54m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → AVL 13:21DL 1182	7h 01m	100%	85%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	3h 18m Charlotte	CLT 14:02 → AVL 15:08AA 5588 · flown by PSA	7h 08m	99%	78%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:41AA 1091	3h 47m Charlotte	CLT 12:28 → AVL 13:25AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont	7h 25m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	DFW 13:42 → ATL 17:04DL 414	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 19:46 → AVL 20:52DL 2037	6h 10m	96%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON