Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 3361 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3361 DFW 07:07 → BHM 09:04 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3399 DFW 21:26 → BHM 23:16 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3361 Envoy	DFW 07:07	BHM 09:04	10%	3%	2.0%	no record
AA 5530 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 09:48	BHM 11:54	17%	7%	2.2%	61%
AA 3884 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:57	BHM 14:49	20%	4%	1.5%	81%
AA 3433 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:37	BHM 21:34	21%	7%	2.7%	75%
AA 5610 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 14:50	BHM 16:53	22%	11%	3.7%	73%
MQ 3399 Envoy	DFW 21:26	BHM 23:16	28%	16%	15.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON