Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4095 at 10:47 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4095 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:47	BIL 12:54	11%	2%	0.8%	84%
AA 3937 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:15	BIL 23:13	24%	13%	12.9%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Billings is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	2h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:25 → BIL 17:52DL 3828 · flown by SkyWest	6h 22m	98%	88%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → ORD 07:33AA 1938	2h 22m Chicago	ORD 09:55 → BIL 12:08AA 3498 · flown by Envoy	8h 08m	96%	86%
United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	1h 02m Denver	DEN 07:55 → BIL 09:35UA 4762 · flown by SkyWest	4h 50m	95%	86%
United Details →	DFW 16:52 → DEN 18:22UA 1303	2h 48m Denver	DEN 21:10 → BIL 22:54UA 5257 · flown by SkyWest	7h 02m	92%	81%
Alaska Details →	DFW 06:24 → SEA 08:45AS 543	1h 24m Seattle	SEA 10:09 → BIL 13:05AS 2054 · flown by Horizon	7h 41m	93%	75%
United Details →	DFW 13:36 → DEN 14:35UA 248	1h 00m Denver	DEN 15:35 → BIL 17:19UA 5498 · flown by SkyWest	4h 43m	76%	65%
Delta Details →	DFW 18:25 → SLC 20:18DL 2811	1h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → BIL 22:53DL 1340	5h 28m	77%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON