Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1103 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 1103 DFW 07:26 → BNA 09:29 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 1500 DFW 21:42 → BNA 23:44 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1103 American Flight history →	DFW 07:26	BNA 09:29	19%	4%	1.0%	82%
AA 1396 American Flight history →	DFW 10:00	BNA 12:01	24%	6%	1.0%	82%
AA 1084 American	DFW 12:51	BNA 14:54	32%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 1181 American	DFW 14:07	BNA 16:11	34%	11%	1.1%	no record
AA 2979 American Flight history →	DFW 19:31	BNA 21:35	35%	16%	3.2%	57%
AA 3230 American Flight history →	DFW 20:15	BNA 22:10	37%	15%	3.2%	57%
AA 2244 American Flight history →	DFW 15:22	BNA 17:24	38%	13%	1.1%	65%
AA 1076 American Flight history →	DFW 18:15	BNA 20:14	38%	16%	3.4%	61%
AA 1500 American Flight history →	DFW 21:42	BNA 23:44	41%	20%	12.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON