Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2019 at 10:41 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 44%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2019 American	DFW 10:41	BOI 13:10	23%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1104 American Flight history →	DFW 21:05	BOI 23:21	44%	19%	9.0%	45%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 10:31 → BOI 12:53DL 874	8h 33m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:30 → SEA 08:46DL 804	3h 44m Seattle	SEA 12:30 → BOI 15:11DL 3959 · flown by SkyWest	9h 41m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276	2h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 11:39 → BOI 13:44DL 2982	7h 49m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:55 → LAX 08:03DL 439	3h 41m Los Angeles	LAX 11:44 → BOI 14:46DL 3773 · flown by SkyWest	8h 51m	98%	84%
American Details →	DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474	2h 41m Phoenix	PHX 10:15 → BOI 13:32AA 4080 · flown by Envoy	7h 24m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → BOI 12:23DL 2095	5h 38m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	3h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:41 → BOI 18:58DL 2111	7h 28m	99%	81%
American Details →	DFW 14:30 → PHX 14:57AA 2108	3h 49m Phoenix	PHX 18:46 → BOI 22:04AA 4952 · flown by SkyWest	8h 34m	97%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DFW 18:25 → SLC 20:18DL 2811	1h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:21 → BOI 22:40DL 4446 · flown by SkyWest	5h 15m	73%	65%
United Details →	DFW 16:52 → DEN 18:22UA 1303	1h 06m Denver	DEN 19:28 → BOI 21:29UA 2014	5h 37m	69%	52%
American Details →	DFW 08:55 → PHX 09:29AA 520	46m Phoenix	PHX 10:15 → BOI 13:32AA 4080 · flown by Envoy	5h 37m	58%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON