Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2351 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 2351 DFW 07:15 → BOS 12:08 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 410 DFW 16:36 → BOS 21:39 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2351 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:15	BOS 12:08	11%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 1206 American Flight history →	DFW 07:15	BOS 12:02	16%	4%	0.8%	82%
DL 1809 Delta	DFW 13:15	BOS 18:17	24%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 3102 American Flight history →	DFW 10:19	BOS 15:29	30%	8%	0.8%	67%
AA 1401 American Flight history →	DFW 12:30	BOS 17:37	36%	11%	0.8%	44%
AA 1268 American	DFW 18:39	BOS 23:41	37%	13%	2.2%	no record
AA 2567 American Flight history →	DFW 17:36	BOS 22:36	39%	17%	1.8%	56%
AA 2306 American Flight history →	DFW 14:50	BOS 19:59	39%	15%	0.8%	55%
AA 410 American	DFW 16:36	BOS 21:39	39%	16%	1.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → BOS 11:59DL 2648	5h 39m	94%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON