Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1724 at 11:58 is the safest bet, 32% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 43%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1724 American Flight history →	DFW 11:58	BUF 16:06	32%	9%	1.6%	76%
AA 574 American Flight history →	DFW 18:45	BUF 22:50	43%	15%	3.6%	58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276	3h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → BUF 15:48DL 1749	7h 53m	99%	87%
American Details →	DFW 08:27 → LGA 13:10AA 1056	3h 05m New York	LGA 16:15 → BUF 17:53AA 4496 · flown by Republic	8h 26m	98%	85%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:41AA 1091	1h 42m Charlotte	CLT 10:23 → BUF 12:15AA 1203	6h 15m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	DFW 15:10 → DTW 18:54DL 735	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → BUF 22:45DL 978	6h 35m	94%	78%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	3h 14m Charlotte	CLT 13:58 → BUF 15:49AA 2442	7h 49m	99%	77%
American Details →	DFW 05:02 → DCA 09:03AA 1618	47m Washington	DCA 09:50 → BUF 11:28AA 4647 · flown by Republic	5h 26m	85%	75%
United Details →	DFW 13:36 → DEN 14:35UA 248	3h 00m Denver	DEN 17:35 → BUF 22:47UA 731	8h 11m	95%	68%
American Details →	DFW 08:29 → ORD 11:00AA 328	3h 34m Chicago	ORD 14:34 → BUF 17:28AA 3013	7h 59m	99%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON