Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1208 at 10:24 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 41%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1208 American Flight history →	DFW 10:24	BUR 11:49	24%	7%	1.3%	75%
AA 2597 American Flight history →	DFW 20:46	BUR 21:58	41%	14%	2.8%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291	1h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	6h 09m	92%	84%
United Details →	DFW 06:00 → SFO 07:47UA 790	58m San Francisco	SFO 08:45 → BUR 10:09UA 2363	6h 09m	91%	80%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 11:20 → BUR 12:56DL 483	9h 36m	99%	77%
Alaska Details →	DFW 06:24 → SEA 08:45AS 543	2h 09m Seattle	SEA 10:54 → BUR 13:28AS 1395	9h 04m	97%	70%
Alaska Details →	DFW 09:00 → SEA 11:20AS 365	1h 58m Seattle	SEA 13:18 → BUR 15:48AS 529	8h 48m	97%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DFW 16:52 → DEN 18:22UA 1303	48m Denver	DEN 19:10 → BUR 20:40UA 8140	5h 48m	61%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON