Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 952 American Flight history →	DFW 09:03	BZN 11:18	17%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 947 American Flight history →	DFW 13:21	BZN 15:35	22%	7%	0.9%	56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → BZN 12:35DL 2946	6h 40m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 11:18 → BZN 13:20DL 406	9h 00m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	1h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:51 → BZN 17:14DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	5h 44m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:30 → SEA 08:46DL 804	3h 04m Seattle	SEA 11:50 → BZN 14:45DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	9h 15m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291	1h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BZN 12:05DL 1971	5h 20m	92%	82%
United Details →	DFW 05:10 → IAH 06:22UA 2260	3h 19m Houston	IAH 09:41 → BZN 12:23UA 623	8h 13m	98%	80%
American Details →	DFW 05:53 → ORD 08:32AA 2999	1h 44m Chicago	ORD 10:16 → BZN 12:52AA 1080	7h 59m	98%	79%
United Details →	DFW 10:33 → ORD 13:02UA 1634	3h 57m Chicago	ORD 16:59 → BZN 19:18UA 1920	9h 45m	97%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DFW 16:52 → DEN 18:22UA 1303	1h 03m Denver	DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347	5h 22m	68%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON