Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 3676 at 10:06 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3676 DFW 10:06 → CID 12:18 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4235 DFW 21:02 → CID 23:05 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3676 Envoy	DFW 10:06	CID 12:18	13%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 4318 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:34	CID 17:41	21%	4%	1.3%	90%worse than usual
AA 3798 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:47	CID 20:57	25%	6%	2.8%	81%
AA 4235 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:02	CID 23:05	33%	14%	13.1%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON