Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1091 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 1091 DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:41 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 3002 DFW 18:50 → CLT 22:29 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1091 American Flight history →	DFW 05:00	CLT 08:41	10%	2%	0.9%	96%
AA 317 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	CLT 10:44	17%	4%	1.2%	86%
AA 2168 American	DFW 08:30	CLT 12:12	20%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 2493 American	DFW 09:40	CLT 13:24	23%	5%	1.0%	no record
F9 3110 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 11:56	CLT 15:29	24%	7%	1.5%	78%
AA 1696 American Flight history →	DFW 11:55	CLT 15:36	28%	7%	1.4%	72%
AA 460 American	DFW 20:11	CLT 23:45	33%	11%	2.7%	no record
AA 3227 American	DFW 14:25	CLT 18:04	34%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 1703 American Flight history →	DFW 18:05	CLT 21:55	35%	13%	2.2%	67%
AA 2013 American	DFW 16:01	CLT 19:42	35%	12%	1.6%	no record
AA 3002 American	DFW 18:50	CLT 22:29	37%	13%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON