Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1492 at 10:11 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 1492 DFW 10:11 → CMH 13:50 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest AA 641 DFW 18:47 → CMH 22:26 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1492 American Flight history →	DFW 10:11	CMH 13:50	21%	6%	0.8%	73%
AA 2337 American Flight history →	DFW 15:34	CMH 19:07	36%	12%	0.9%	62%
AA 641 American Flight history →	DFW 18:47	CMH 22:26	40%	14%	2.4%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON