Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1552 at 08:21 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1552 DFW 08:21 → COS 09:31 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 790 DFW 15:36 → COS 16:38 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1552 American Flight history →	DFW 08:21	COS 09:31	17%	6%	1.1%	71%
AA 6390 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 11:28	COS 12:37	17%	8%	1.1%	89%
AA 1170 American Flight history →	DFW 13:46	COS 14:48	30%	11%	1.0%	70%
AA 6267 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 17:27	COS 18:34	31%	13%	2.6%	65%
AA 790 American Flight history →	DFW 15:36	COS 16:38	35%	12%	1.2%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON