Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: F9 4280 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–31%.

Safest bet that day F9 4280 DFW 06:35 → CVG 10:10 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 1266 DFW 20:01 → CVG 23:32 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 4280 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 06:35	CVG 10:10	11%	5%	0.9%	78%
AA 2610 American Flight history →	DFW 07:39	CVG 11:07	15%	4%	0.9%	87%
AA 3305 American Flight history →	DFW 10:56	CVG 14:22	19%	6%	0.9%	81%
AA 2919 American Flight history →	DFW 15:02	CVG 18:29	31%	11%	1.0%	57%
AA 1266 American Flight history →	DFW 20:01	CVG 23:32	31%	12%	2.6%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON