Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 773 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–55%.

Safest bet that day UA 773 DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1322 DFW 17:36 → DEN 18:38 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 773 United Flight history →	DFW 05:45	DEN 06:53	6%	2%	0.6%	95%
F9 2549 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:01	DEN 08:18	16%	5%	0.8%	85%
UA 567 United	DFW 08:59	DEN 10:18	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 2631 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:38	DEN 17:00	22%	8%	0.9%	76%
AA 1523 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	DEN 08:08	23%	4%	0.9%	81%
UA 248 United Flight history →	DFW 13:36	DEN 14:35	24%	8%	0.6%	83%
F9 4463 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:30	DEN 21:44	24%	10%	1.9%	66%
AA 1756 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	DEN 09:28	27%	4%	0.8%	77%
AA 2359 American Flight history →	DFW 10:41	DEN 11:48	29%	6%	0.8%	73%
UA 1303 United Flight history →	DFW 16:52	DEN 18:22	32%	13%	0.8%	59%
AA 420 American Flight history →	DFW 13:17	DEN 14:21	36%	7%	0.8%	77%worse than usual
AA 1832 American Flight history →	DFW 14:57	DEN 16:12	41%	11%	0.9%	62%
AA 577 American Flight history →	DFW 21:21	DEN 22:40	42%	18%	11.9%	50%
AA 2235 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	DEN 19:41	45%	12%	2.5%	46%
AA 1322 American Flight history →	DFW 17:36	DEN 18:38	55%	13%	2.4%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON