Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OH 5560 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–41%.

Safest bet that day OH 5560 DFW 07:14 → DSM 09:30 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1371 DFW 22:05 → DSM 23:58 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5560 PSA	DFW 07:14	DSM 09:30	13%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 3930 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:02	DSM 18:01	22%	6%	1.3%	94%worse than usual
AA 1664 American Flight history →	DFW 13:18	DSM 15:18	32%	11%	1.1%	60%
AA 1371 American Flight history →	DFW 22:05	DSM 23:58	41%	22%	10.6%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON