Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2183 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 2183 DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3108 DFW 18:47 → DTW 22:36 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2183 Delta Flight history →	DFW 05:20	DTW 09:04	6%	3%	0.7%	94%
F9 3178 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 06:42	DTW 10:34	12%	4%	0.9%	95%
DL 2746 Delta Flight history →	DFW 11:19	DTW 15:02	18%	4%	0.7%	80%
AA 3101 American Flight history →	DFW 07:08	DTW 10:58	18%	3%	0.9%	85%
DL 735 Delta Flight history →	DFW 15:10	DTW 18:54	21%	7%	0.7%	79%
F9 3990 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 14:29	DTW 18:15	21%	8%	1.0%	76%
AA 690 American Flight history →	DFW 11:25	DTW 15:14	29%	6%	1.0%	68%
AA 2822 American	DFW 16:24	DTW 20:03	38%	12%	1.5%	no record
AA 3108 American Flight history →	DFW 18:47	DTW 22:36	42%	13%	2.0%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON