Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1365 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 43–48%.

Safest bet that day AA 1365 DFW 08:25 → ELP 09:22 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest AA 1514 DFW 21:15 → ELP 22:05 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1365 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	ELP 09:22	20%	6%	1.2%	73%
AA 1658 American	DFW 10:51	ELP 11:39	27%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 2953 American	DFW 12:42	ELP 13:34	32%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 1681 American Flight history →	DFW 14:42	ELP 15:33	37%	10%	1.3%	57%
AA 2097 American	DFW 16:06	ELP 16:58	43%	14%	2.3%	no record
AA 555 American Flight history →	DFW 18:09	ELP 19:00	45%	15%	3.5%	59%
AA 1514 American	DFW 21:15	ELP 22:05	48%	23%	12.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON