Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2215 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 2215 DFW 06:00 → EWR 10:08 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2861 DFW 14:37 → EWR 19:20 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2215 United	DFW 06:00	EWR 10:08	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 1847 United Flight history →	DFW 07:19	EWR 11:56	11%	4%	1.0%	89%
F9 2472 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:50	EWR 12:31	16%	6%	1.2%	83%
AA 1796 American Flight history →	DFW 07:01	EWR 11:43	18%	4%	1.5%	81%
UA 1268 United	DFW 09:22	EWR 13:58	19%	7%	1.1%	no record
YX 3647 Republic	DFW 12:46	EWR 17:41	26%	8%	1.7%	no record
UA 2461 United	DFW 16:56	EWR 21:32	33%	15%	1.2%	no record
AA 618 American Flight history →	DFW 18:21	EWR 23:02	37%	14%	2.8%	56%
AA 813 American Flight history →	DFW 11:58	EWR 16:35	37%	11%	1.4%	69%
AA 2861 American Flight history →	DFW 14:37	EWR 19:20	42%	16%	1.5%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON