Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1828 at 08:57 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 1828 DFW 08:57 → FAT 10:15 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 2958 DFW 21:45 → FAT 23:07 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1828 American Flight history →	DFW 08:57	FAT 10:15	21%	5%	1.0%	81%
AA 1329 American	DFW 12:35	FAT 14:10	32%	12%	1.2%	no record
AA 1223 American Flight history →	DFW 17:21	FAT 18:43	40%	17%	2.5%	55%
AA 2958 American Flight history →	DFW 21:45	FAT 23:07	44%	23%	11.9%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON