Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2511 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 2511 DFW 07:29 → FLL 11:36 · 24% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1882 DFW 16:10 → FLL 20:10 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 25% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2511 American	DFW 07:29	FLL 11:36	24%	5%	8.4%	no record
AA 1390 American Flight history →	DFW 10:28	FLL 14:34	29%	7%	2.7%	67%
AA 1373 American Flight history →	DFW 12:44	FLL 16:49	31%	7%	3.0%	77%
AA 3220 American	DFW 11:48	FLL 15:48	32%	7%	2.8%	no record
B6 2282 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 07:00	FLL 10:57	33%	8%	3.3%	83%worse than usual
F9 3318 Frontier	DFW 14:18	FLL 18:33	33%	11%	2.7%	no record
B6 482 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 11:28	FLL 15:24	36%	13%	2.5%	76%worse than usual
AA 1847 American Flight history →	DFW 19:01	FLL 23:07	36%	14%	3.8%	62%
B6 1882 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 16:10	FLL 20:10	40%	17%	2.6%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON