Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3886 at 10:22 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3886 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:22	GSO 14:12	11%	2%	1.0%	91%
AA 2242 American Flight history →	DFW 13:55	GSO 17:40	37%	8%	1.1%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Greensboro is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → GSO 14:13DL 3060	6h 28m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183	1h 42m Detroit	DTW 10:46 → GSO 12:26DL 4966 · flown by Endeavor	6h 06m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	DFW 11:10 → ATL 14:14DL 961	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:46 → GSO 18:06DL 3050	5h 56m	98%	83%
American Details →	DFW 08:27 → LGA 13:10AA 1056	3h 10m New York	LGA 16:20 → GSO 18:20AA 4574 · flown by Republic	8h 53m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DFW 13:42 → ATL 17:04DL 414	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → GSO 22:20DL 1617	7h 38m	98%	77%
American Details →	DFW 14:25 → MIA 18:24AA 1167	2h 26m Miami	MIA 20:50 → GSO 23:07AA 3754 · flown by Envoy	7h 42m	91%	72%
Delta Details →	DFW 15:10 → DTW 18:54DL 735	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 19:55 → GSO 21:50DL 5407 · flown by Endeavor	5h 40m	79%	70%
American Details →	DFW 11:30 → ORD 13:58AA 1285	1h 42m Chicago	ORD 15:40 → GSO 18:43AA 4118 · flown by Envoy	6h 13m	85%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 18:05 → CLT 21:55AA 1703	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 23:01 → GSO 23:57AA 2802	4h 52m	71%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON