tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:10, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5 American Flight history → DFW 11:30 HNL 14:26 33% 10% 0.7% 68%
AA 115 American Flight history → DFW 13:32 HNL 16:37 35% 11% 0.7% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 13h 00m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474 3h 11m Phoenix PHX 10:45 → HNL 14:38AA 693 12h 30m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → DFW 08:10 → SLC 10:00DL 1291 1h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 09m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183 1h 26m Detroit DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307 13h 47m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276 47m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 11h 48m 85% 76%
UnitedDetails → DFW 05:10 → IAH 06:22UA 2260 3h 48m Houston IAH 10:10 → HNL 13:26UA 253 13h 16m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → DFW 06:58 → SFO 08:43UA 790 2h 02m San Francisco SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20UA 2380 11h 22m 95% 73%
AmericanDetails → DFW 11:46 → LAX 12:58AA 442 1h 57m Los Angeles LAX 14:55 → HNL 17:51AA 143 11h 05m 92% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DFW 15:27 → LAX 16:43AA 1669 1h 11m Los Angeles LAX 17:54 → HNL 20:41AA 297 10h 14m 74% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON