Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 17–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 9754 DFW 09:02 → HOU 10:31 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3391 DFW 18:37 → HOU 19:58 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 9754 American	DFW 09:02	HOU 10:31	17%	6%	1.2%	no record
OO 6382 SkyWest	DFW 09:53	HOU 11:17	19%	7%	1.3%	no record
OO 6186 SkyWest	DFW 12:17	HOU 13:41	20%	8%	1.3%	no record
MQ 4015 Envoy	DFW 14:36	HOU 15:53	20%	4%	1.6%	no record
MQ 4222 Envoy	DFW 16:47	HOU 18:09	23%	6%	2.7%	no record
AA 3391 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:37	HOU 19:58	25%	7%	3.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON