Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3476 at 07:19 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 3476 DFW 07:19 → HSV 09:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OH 5380 DFW 21:24 → HSV 23:24 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3476 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:19	HSV 09:19	11%	3%	1.3%	94%
OO 6302 SkyWest	DFW 09:59	HSV 12:01	21%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 3967 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:08	HSV 16:05	23%	5%	1.3%	88%worse than usual
AA 5383 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 12:05	HSV 14:12	23%	7%	2.4%	75%
AA 4278 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:30	HSV 23:26	31%	17%	16.1%	70%
OH 5380 PSA	DFW 21:24	HSV 23:24	32%	19%	13.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON