Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: F9 3208 at 07:28 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day F9 3208 DFW 07:28 → IAD 11:38 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2254 DFW 16:21 → IAD 20:32 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 3208 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:28	IAD 11:38	16%	6%	1.0%	84%
UA 358 United Flight history →	DFW 12:25	IAD 16:31	17%	5%	0.6%	86%
AA 524 American Flight history →	DFW 10:17	IAD 14:26	18%	5%	0.8%	90%
UA 1240 United Flight history →	DFW 17:21	IAD 21:30	26%	11%	0.8%	79%
AA 2254 American	DFW 16:21	IAD 20:32	28%	9%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON