Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2260 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–44%.

Safest bet that day UA 2260 DFW 05:10 → IAH 06:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2209 DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2260 United Flight history →	DFW 05:10	IAH 06:22	7%	3%	0.7%	95%
UA 2670 United Flight history →	DFW 07:00	IAH 08:26	15%	6%	0.7%	72%
AA 3829 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:22	IAH 11:39	15%	3%	1.0%	97%worse than usual
UA 1586 United Flight history →	DFW 09:52	IAH 11:19	16%	6%	0.7%	82%
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:07	IAH 08:34	16%	3%	1.1%	69%
OH 5576 PSA	DFW 14:26	IAH 15:53	19%	9%	1.0%	no record
OH 5299 PSA	DFW 17:21	IAH 18:46	25%	12%	2.4%	no record
AA 1407 American Flight history →	DFW 08:20	IAH 09:33	27%	6%	0.9%	77%
UA 1609 United Flight history →	DFW 17:26	IAH 18:55	28%	14%	1.1%	60%
UA 2682 United Flight history →	DFW 16:00	IAH 17:17	31%	13%	1.0%	67%
AA 1397 American	DFW 12:05	IAH 13:23	31%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 9748 American	DFW 14:32	IAH 15:50	35%	13%	1.0%	no record
AA 1392 American Flight history →	DFW 18:36	IAH 19:54	39%	15%	2.6%	50%
AA 1386 American	DFW 18:01	IAH 19:19	40%	16%	1.9%	no record
AA 2209 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	IAH 22:24	44%	23%	11.3%	48%
UA 3985 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DFW 14:15	IAH 15:37	29%	17%	0.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON