Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 4032 at 07:54 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–33%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4032 DFW 07:54 → ICT 09:18 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5086 DFW 21:16 → ICT 22:48 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4032 Envoy	DFW 07:54	ICT 09:18	14%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 4142 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:31	ICT 10:55	15%	3%	1.2%	83%
OH 5372 PSA	DFW 12:21	ICT 13:56	21%	7%	1.8%	no record
AA 3691 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:07	ICT 18:30	27%	8%	4.6%	67%
OO 6218 SkyWest	DFW 20:30	ICT 21:55	30%	13%	3.8%	no record
AA 2304 American	DFW 14:25	ICT 15:57	33%	11%	1.7%	no record
AA 5086 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 21:16	ICT 22:48	33%	19%	13.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON