Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 6468 at 09:52 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 6468 DFW 09:52 → IDA 11:59 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 6467 DFW 20:30 → IDA 22:38 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6468 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 09:52	IDA 11:59	18%	7%	0.9%	75%
OO 6223 SkyWest	DFW 11:41	IDA 13:51	20%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 6467 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 20:30	IDA 22:38	28%	10%	2.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON