Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


MQ 4016 Envoy	DFW 12:07	ILM 16:04	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3355 Envoy	DFW 19:02	ILM 22:58	25%	10%	1.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wilmington is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → ILM 11:18DL 376	4h 58m	97%	86%
American Details →	DFW 07:02 → DCA 10:59AA 1623	2h 24m Washington	DCA 13:23 → ILM 15:07AA 5313 · flown by PSA	7h 05m	99%	86%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:41AA 1091	3h 43m Charlotte	CLT 12:24 → ILM 13:39AA 5416 · flown by PSA	7h 39m	100%	83%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → ORD 07:33AA 1938	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 08:43 → ILM 12:03AA 3970 · flown by Envoy	6h 03m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	DFW 13:42 → ATL 17:04DL 414	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 20:55 → ILM 22:31DL 3070	7h 49m	98%	78%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	3h 03m Charlotte	CLT 13:47 → ILM 14:54AA 2413	6h 54m	99%	77%
American Details →	DFW 14:25 → MIA 18:24AA 1167	3h 34m Miami	MIA 21:58 → ILM 23:59AA 3897 · flown by Envoy	8h 34m	97%	76%
American Details →	DFW 07:30 → PHL 11:52AA 415	1h 20m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → ILM 14:59AA 6133 · flown by Piedmont	6h 27m	91%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 16:09 → PHL 20:42AA 1945	1h 13m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → ILM 23:45AA 6083 · flown by Piedmont	6h 36m	74%	52%
American Details →	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	48m Charlotte	CLT 16:24 → ILM 17:41AA 6116 · flown by Piedmont	4h 46m	61%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON