Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1506 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38%.

Safest bet that day AA 1506 DFW 07:10 → IND 10:32 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1413 DFW 16:08 → IND 19:31 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1506 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	IND 10:32	17%	5%	0.8%	88%
AA 3312 American	DFW 10:13	IND 13:37	25%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 1450 American	DFW 13:18	IND 16:38	31%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 2784 American	DFW 19:01	IND 22:26	38%	12%	2.0%	no record
AA 1413 American	DFW 16:08	IND 19:31	38%	12%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON