Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1923 at 08:23 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 1923 DFW 08:23 → JAC 10:30 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest AA 3042 DFW 17:15 → JAC 19:17 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1923 American Flight history →	DFW 08:23	JAC 10:30	21%	5%	0.9%	73%
AA 1883 American Flight history →	DFW 13:12	JAC 14:59	37%	10%	1.0%	66%
AA 3042 American Flight history →	DFW 17:15	JAC 19:17	41%	14%	2.0%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON