Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1061 at 07:48 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 1061 DFW 07:48 → JAX 11:22 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 679 DFW 18:51 → JAX 22:30 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1061 American Flight history →	DFW 07:48	JAX 11:22	19%	5%	1.3%	89%
AA 2329 American	DFW 09:32	JAX 13:08	23%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 1472 American	DFW 12:47	JAX 16:24	29%	10%	1.6%	no record
AA 1460 American	DFW 15:26	JAX 19:02	31%	14%	1.8%	no record
AA 679 American Flight history →	DFW 18:51	JAX 22:30	37%	16%	2.9%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON