Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 454 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 454 DFW 08:15 → JFK 12:59 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 578 DFW 16:13 → JFK 21:00 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 454 Delta Flight history →	DFW 08:15	JFK 12:59	11%	3%	1.0%	90%
AA 1766 American Flight history →	DFW 09:50	JFK 14:34	25%	6%	0.9%	75%
AA 1058 American	DFW 13:11	JFK 17:56	30%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 1248 American Flight history →	DFW 18:31	JFK 23:15	35%	11%	1.4%	64%
AA 481 American Flight history →	DFW 16:45	JFK 21:31	35%	13%	1.0%	50%
AA 578 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	JFK 21:00	36%	13%	1.0%	57%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	51m Atlanta	ATL 09:25 → JFK 11:39DL 1034	5h 19m	91%	76%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	5h 35m	91%	75%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:41AA 1091	57m Charlotte	CLT 09:38 → JFK 11:30AA 822	5h 30m	87%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON