Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: F9 1649 at 06:27 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 47–50%.

Safest bet that day F9 1649 DFW 06:27 → LAS 07:28 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2371 DFW 21:27 → LAS 22:18 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1649 Frontier	DFW 06:27	LAS 07:28	14%	4%	1.1%	no record
F9 1051 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 10:05	LAS 11:05	18%	6%	1.0%	86%
F9 1961 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 00:05	LAS 01:10	19%	7%	0.9%	78%
AA 1969 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	LAS 07:51	20%	4%	1.1%	83%
AA 1550 American	DFW 08:52	LAS 09:50	25%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 1494 American Flight history →	DFW 09:40	LAS 10:38	31%	6%	1.0%	71%
AA 1482 American Flight history →	DFW 10:40	LAS 11:39	31%	7%	1.1%	78%
AA 777 American Flight history →	DFW 12:18	LAS 13:06	35%	9%	1.2%	75%worse than usual
AA 2376 American Flight history →	DFW 13:40	LAS 14:28	40%	12%	1.2%	54%
AA 1573 American	DFW 15:30	LAS 16:25	45%	15%	1.6%	no record
AA 1771 American Flight history →	DFW 19:22	LAS 20:11	47%	24%	4.4%	59%
AA 884 American Flight history →	DFW 17:50	LAS 18:42	48%	26%	3.7%	56%
AA 2864 American Flight history →	DFW 16:58	LAS 17:48	49%	23%	3.0%	61%worse than usual
AA 2371 American Flight history →	DFW 21:27	LAS 22:18	50%	24%	12.4%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON