Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 439 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–46%.

Safest bet that day DL 439 DFW 06:55 → LAX 08:03 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2038 DFW 21:25 → LAX 22:39 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 439 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:55	LAX 08:03	12%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 3303 American	DFW 06:30	LAX 07:47	16%	3%	1.0%	no record
F9 4963 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 14:03	LAX 15:26	19%	6%	0.9%	76%
AA 3317 American Flight history →	DFW 07:15	LAX 08:32	21%	4%	1.0%	85%
DL 521 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:08	LAX 17:22	23%	5%	1.1%	88%worse than usual
AA 1996 American Flight history →	DFW 08:35	LAX 09:49	26%	4%	1.1%	83%
AA 3273 American Flight history →	DFW 09:30	LAX 10:49	26%	5%	1.0%	69%
AA 3181 American	DFW 10:50	LAX 12:08	27%	5%	1.1%	no record
F9 3211 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 22:10	LAX 23:38	27%	16%	9.2%	77%
AA 1275 American	DFW 13:10	LAX 14:25	31%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 442 American Flight history →	DFW 11:46	LAX 12:57	33%	5%	1.0%	75%
AA 1669 American Flight history →	DFW 15:27	LAX 16:42	36%	9%	1.1%	52%
AA 1504 American Flight history →	DFW 16:29	LAX 17:44	39%	11%	1.6%	61%
AA 2125 American	DFW 17:45	LAX 19:02	39%	12%	1.9%	no record
AA 2043 American	DFW 18:44	LAX 20:02	43%	11%	2.2%	no record
AA 2038 American	DFW 21:25	LAX 22:39	46%	18%	10.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON