Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 551 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 551 DFW 07:00 → LGA 11:29 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 610 DFW 16:45 → LGA 21:26 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 551 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:00	LGA 11:29	9%	2%	1.3%	86%
AA 1609 American Flight history →	DFW 07:27	LGA 11:58	16%	3%	2.0%	83%
AA 1056 American Flight history →	DFW 08:27	LGA 13:10	17%	4%	1.8%	75%
DL 1810 Delta	DFW 12:04	LGA 16:34	19%	5%	1.2%	no record
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:10	LGA 20:51	22%	10%	1.7%	69%
AA 2178 American	DFW 10:00	LGA 14:40	23%	6%	1.6%	no record
F9 3424 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:23	LGA 19:59	23%	10%	2.6%	61%
AA 1375 American	DFW 18:57	LGA 23:37	28%	10%	3.8%	no record
AA 2434 American	DFW 14:58	LGA 19:37	29%	9%	1.9%	no record
AA 672 American Flight history →	DFW 13:05	LGA 17:45	31%	9%	1.6%	59%
AA 610 American Flight history →	DFW 16:45	LGA 21:26	32%	12%	2.4%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON