Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3850 at 07:17 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 3850 DFW 07:17 → LIT 08:42 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 4079 DFW 21:11 → LIT 22:35 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3850 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:17	LIT 08:42	11%	2%	0.9%	89%
AA 3898 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 11:46	LIT 13:08	14%	3%	0.9%	82%
AA 4309 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:49	LIT 17:10	18%	5%	1.0%	77%
OH 5599 PSA	DFW 09:50	LIT 11:26	18%	6%	1.2%	no record
OH 5615 PSA	DFW 14:14	LIT 15:49	20%	8%	1.4%	no record
MQ 3505 Envoy	DFW 17:03	LIT 18:25	23%	6%	2.2%	no record
MQ 3519 Envoy	DFW 19:12	LIT 20:37	24%	6%	2.6%	no record
AA 4079 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:11	LIT 22:35	32%	14%	15.1%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON