Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3643 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 3643 DFW 08:36 → MAF 09:56 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 4279 DFW 18:37 → MAF 19:52 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3643 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:36	MAF 09:56	11%	2%	2.1%	85%
MQ 3469 Envoy	DFW 10:12	MAF 11:31	14%	3%	2.4%	no record
MQ 3512 Envoy	DFW 12:42	MAF 13:58	16%	4%	2.8%	no record
AA 5013 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 07:33	MAF 09:00	16%	5%	1.5%	81%
AA 3653 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:39	MAF 16:58	18%	5%	3.4%	80%
OO 5010 SkyWest	DFW 16:43	MAF 18:04	21%	11%	3.7%	no record
AA 4172 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:12	MAF 21:30	23%	7%	5.6%	85%
AA 3541 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:35	MAF 21:53	23%	7%	5.4%	77%
AA 4279 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:37	MAF 19:52	24%	7%	5.6%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON