Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 36 at 05:38 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 36 DFW 05:38 → MCI 07:16 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1036 DFW 21:42 → MCI 23:31 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 36 American	DFW 05:38	MCI 07:16	11%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 2430 American	DFW 07:18	MCI 09:05	16%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 3331 American Flight history →	DFW 09:02	MCI 10:47	21%	4%	1.0%	70%
AA 1376 American Flight history →	DFW 10:40	MCI 12:25	21%	5%	1.1%	83%
AA 3030 American Flight history →	DFW 15:02	MCI 16:46	28%	10%	1.8%	59%
AA 1315 American	DFW 11:57	MCI 13:31	29%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 595 American	DFW 20:24	MCI 22:06	34%	14%	3.6%	no record
AA 2267 American Flight history →	DFW 17:30	MCI 19:06	37%	15%	2.7%	56%
AA 1036 American Flight history →	DFW 21:42	MCI 23:31	40%	19%	9.4%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON