Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 2469 at 18:48, with a 43% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2469 American Flight history →	DFW 18:48	MDT 22:59	43%	16%	1.9%	54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Harrisburg is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → MDT 11:39DL 1248	5h 19m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	DFW 11:10 → ATL 14:14DL 961	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 15:41 → MDT 17:37DL 2857	5h 27m	90%	72%
American Details →	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 18:13 → MDT 19:53AA 6073 · flown by Piedmont	6h 58m	97%	70%
American Details →	DFW 10:19 → BOS 15:29AA 3102	1h 18m Boston	BOS 16:47 → MDT 18:36AA 4715 · flown by Republic	7h 17m	85%	69%
American Details →	DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988	3h 11m Chicago	ORD 19:02 → MDT 22:16AA 2400	8h 06m	93%	63%
United Details →	DFW 14:15 → ORD 16:58UA 2160	2h 23m Chicago	ORD 19:21 → MDT 22:08UA 1719	6h 53m	87%	61%
United Details →	DFW 10:33 → ORD 13:02UA 1634	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 14:05 → MDT 16:59UA 533	5h 26m	81%	57%
American Details →	DFW 11:30 → ORD 13:58AA 1285	1h 32m Chicago	ORD 15:30 → MDT 18:35AA 3243	6h 05m	82%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON