Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 3528 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–42%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3528 DFW 07:26 → MEM 09:09 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1758 DFW 21:25 → MEM 23:07 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3528 Envoy	DFW 07:26	MEM 09:09	14%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 3888 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:47	MEM 14:26	17%	4%	1.1%	89%
AA 1935 American Flight history →	DFW 09:39	MEM 11:11	23%	5%	1.4%	64%
MQ 3347 Envoy	DFW 19:03	MEM 20:45	25%	8%	3.2%	no record
AA 2969 American Flight history →	DFW 15:18	MEM 16:58	33%	8%	1.1%	84%worse than usual
AA 2153 American Flight history →	DFW 16:35	MEM 18:16	36%	12%	1.9%	68%
AA 1758 American Flight history →	DFW 21:25	MEM 23:07	42%	20%	12.0%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON