Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3189 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–45%.

Safest bet that day AA 3189 DFW 05:00 → MIA 08:55 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1167 DFW 14:25 → MIA 18:24 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3189 American Flight history →	DFW 05:00	MIA 08:55	18%	3%	1.2%	84%
AA 3055 American Flight history →	DFW 06:00	MIA 09:58	22%	3%	1.2%	81%
AA 3290 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	MIA 11:11	28%	4%	1.2%	82%
F9 2676 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 18:20	MIA 22:34	33%	15%	2.4%	70%
AA 1219 American	DFW 09:02	MIA 13:04	33%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 1454 American	DFW 10:26	MIA 14:28	35%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 2090 American Flight history →	DFW 20:03	MIA 00:03	38%	13%	3.5%	56%
AA 2461 American	DFW 12:46	MIA 16:48	41%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 2050 American Flight history →	DFW 17:44	MIA 21:50	42%	14%	2.6%	63%
AA 2206 American Flight history →	DFW 18:10	MIA 22:05	42%	14%	2.8%	56%
MQ 9868 Envoy	DFW 13:08	MIA 17:05	42%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 3308 American Flight history →	DFW 16:30	MIA 20:35	43%	13%	2.6%	56%
AA 942 American	DFW 16:06	MIA 20:05	45%	13%	2.1%	no record
AA 1167 American Flight history →	DFW 14:25	MIA 18:24	46%	11%	1.3%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON