Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2581 at 09:04 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2581 DFW 09:04 → MKE 11:37 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1234 DFW 19:21 → MKE 21:58 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2581 American Flight history →	DFW 09:04	MKE 11:37	23%	7%	1.2%	80%
AA 869 American Flight history →	DFW 14:30	MKE 17:03	33%	10%	1.2%	71%
AA 1234 American Flight history →	DFW 19:21	MKE 21:58	35%	15%	2.8%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON