Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 2879 at 10:11, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2879 American Flight history →	DFW 10:11	MRY 11:58	26%	8%	0.9%	85%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Monterey is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	DFW 09:00 → SEA 11:20AS 365	4h 00m Seattle	SEA 15:20 → MRY 17:42AS 2129 · flown by Horizon	10h 42m	99%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DFW 16:52 → DEN 18:22UA 1303	53m Denver	DEN 19:15 → MRY 20:53UA 1822	6h 01m	65%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON