tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1141 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 44%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1141 American DFW 08:30 MSN 11:00 24% 6% 0.9% no record
AA 1660 American DFW 16:10 MSN 18:38 44% 16% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:53 → MSN 12:54DL 2681 7h 34m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → DFW 08:29 → ORD 11:00AA 328 2h 59m Chicago ORD 13:59 → MSN 15:05AA 4038 · flown by Envoy 6h 36m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → DFW 05:02 → DCA 09:03AA 1618 1h 04m Washington DCA 10:07 → MSN 11:36AA 5221 · flown by PSA 6h 34m 93% 82%
AmericanDetails → DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:41AA 1091 3h 46m Charlotte CLT 12:27 → MSN 13:42AA 2443 8h 42m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → DFW 05:53 → ORD 08:32AA 2999 3h 02m Chicago ORD 11:34 → MSN 12:39AA 6256 · flown by SkyWest 6h 46m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276 49m Minneapolis MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest 4h 24m 87% 76%
AmericanDetails → DFW 16:44 → ORD 19:30AA 1290 3h 25m Chicago ORD 22:55 → MSN 23:49AA 4045 · flown by Envoy 7h 05m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → DFW 11:30 → ORD 13:58AA 1285 3h 21m Chicago ORD 17:19 → MSN 18:34AA 3953 · flown by Envoy 7h 04m 96% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DFW 19:26 → ORD 21:52AA 3790 · flown by Envoy 1h 03m Chicago ORD 22:55 → MSN 23:49AA 4045 · flown by Envoy 4h 23m 70% 52%
UnitedDetails → DFW 17:47 → ORD 20:30UA 1564 51m Chicago ORD 21:21 → MSN 22:15UA 1251 4h 28m 56% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON