Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 3672 at 09:37, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3672 Envoy	DFW 09:37	MSO 12:22	12%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	93%	87%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276	3h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSO 14:38DL 362	8h 43m	99%	85%
Alaska Details →	DFW 06:24 → SEA 08:45AS 543	3h 38m Seattle	SEA 12:23 → MSO 14:49AS 1451	9h 25m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	DFW 18:25 → SLC 20:18DL 2811	1h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:36 → MSO 23:11DL 1824	5h 46m	80%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DFW 16:52 → DEN 18:22UA 1303	1h 09m Denver	DEN 19:31 → MSO 21:40UA 1092	5h 48m	69%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON