Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1276 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 1276 DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3149 DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1276 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:55	MSP 09:23	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 2972 Delta Flight history →	DFW 11:16	MSP 13:44	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
AA 2220 American Flight history →	DFW 07:01	MSP 09:38	14%	4%	0.8%	83%
DL 1629 Delta	DFW 15:16	MSP 17:45	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 3224 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 16:47	MSP 19:16	21%	10%	1.2%	77%
AA 1668 American	DFW 11:58	MSP 14:32	25%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 2406 American Flight history →	DFW 14:31	MSP 17:07	28%	10%	0.8%	62%
AA 2806 American Flight history →	DFW 18:51	MSP 21:21	32%	13%	1.8%	58%
AA 3149 American Flight history →	DFW 21:30	MSP 23:57	37%	18%	10.4%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON