Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4946 at 07:22 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–48%.

Safest bet that day AA 4946 DFW 07:22 → OKC 08:40 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 1458 DFW 21:29 → OKC 22:33 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4946 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 07:22	OKC 08:40	14%	6%	0.8%	100%worse than usual
AA 1902 American Flight history →	DFW 09:16	OKC 10:29	21%	6%	1.0%	82%
AA 3099 American	DFW 10:40	OKC 11:53	23%	8%	1.0%	no record
MQ 3555 Envoy	DFW 18:49	OKC 19:55	26%	12%	8.2%	no record
AA 2929 American Flight history →	DFW 13:26	OKC 14:36	30%	12%	1.2%	77%
AA 2832 American Flight history →	DFW 15:02	OKC 16:15	30%	15%	1.2%	65%
AA 2812 American Flight history →	DFW 16:26	OKC 17:39	36%	18%	2.5%	27%
AA 2734 American Flight history →	DFW 17:31	OKC 18:43	39%	20%	9.0%	47%
AA 1458 American Flight history →	DFW 21:29	OKC 22:33	48%	26%	11.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON